Consumption Growth 101. Summary

CONSUMPTION GROWTH 101

Summary

Exponential growth produces some surprising results. For example:

At typical rates of global energy consumption growth, one generation can consume as much energy as all previous generations put together.
At the present rate of energy consumption growth, within less than 500 years the world would be consuming more energy than literally all the solar energy in the world.
The amount of uranium and thorium necessary to supply the world with energy at 2 percent per annum growth for 1,000 years is 24 billion times present annual energy requirements.
If, hypothetically, global population continued to grow at an average rate of 1.1 percent per annum, within around 2,000 years there would be more water in humans than water in the world. ...This isn't going to happen.

Except for sunlight the world is essentially a closed system. Given that, the conclusion is inescapable:

Population growth will stop.
Energy consumption growth will stop.
By extension: All tangible consumption growth will eventually stop.

The dominant paradigm of modern economies is continuous growth. Not strictly, but in general, economic growth equates to consumption growth.

To understand where society is heading with a continuous growth paradigm one only needs to understand what happens to bacteria in a Petri dish.

The only choice society has is between a controlled transition to zero growth or an uncontrolled and probably unpleasant transition. Perpetual growth is not an option.

Global environmental issues are by and large driven by human consumption.

Therefore tackling global environmental issues means tackling human consumption.
The problem is compounded by the fact that the rate of consumption is growing.

The source of consumption growth is the creation of new points of consumption which didn't previously exist.

Efficiency improvements cannot compete with ongoing growth. (Like feeding a crocodile lean meat in the hope that it won't grow bigger.)
Reducing per capita consumption cannot compete with ongoing population growth.
Clean energy cannot compete with ongoing growth.
Recycling cannot compete with ongoing growth.
Technology gains cannot compete with ongoing growth. (Besides, today's solutions may be tomorrow's problems.)
Market-driven systems cannot compete with ongoing growth.

The unavoidable and critical ingredient in achieving a controlled transition to zero growth is to restrict the creation of new points of consumption.

An example to demonstrate this point is to consider the vacant land that existed prior to the construction of a new super-efficient house.

How much electricity was consumed by the vacant land?
How much greenhouse gas was emitted as a result of the consumption occurring there?

The base case that the environment is accounting against is not an inefficient house. The base case is what was there before -- nothing.

If the critical ingredient in reducing consumption growth on an ongoing basis is to restrict the creation of new points of consumption then it follows that population must stop growing.

The most popularly advocated strategies for addressing global environmental issues invariably make no mention of moving towards zero population growth and zero growth in net points of consumption. These growth-ignoring strategies are doomed to failure in the long run. Like attempting to make a fruit cake without fruit mix, it just won't work. There are ultimately no substitutes for zero population growth and zero consumption growth.

What is at issue are questions of simple reality. It is not an ideological battle to be won or lost; it is a case of having a good fix on the map of reality that will ultimately determine the collective destiny of everyone. After all, while the debates will continue, in the end it is reality that will have the final say.